How does early deprivation relate to later-life outcomes? A longitudinal analysis

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DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES DPS1627 NOVEMBER 2016 How does early deprivation relate to later-life outcomes? A longitudinal analysis Ron DIRIS and Frank VANDENBROUCKE Public Economics Faculty of Business Diris* Vandenbroucke† Abstract Measures material are increasingly used as alternatives traditional poverty indicators While there exists extensive literature focusing on the impact that growing up in a (financially) poor household has future success little is known about how relates long-run outcomes This study uses data from 1970 British Cohort Study assess relationship between adult life We control for an set observable characteristics further employ valueadded generalized sensitivity nature this find diverse outcome variables but magnitude conditional relationships generally small Immaterial family quality show relatively stronger ties especially with respect non-cognitive skills Keywords: disadvantage JEL Classification: I32 J13 J62 *Department Maastricht University 6200 MD Netherlands rdiris@maastrichtuniversitynl (corresponding author) †University Amsterdam KU Leuven Antwerp would like thank Erwin Ooghe Brian Nolan Geranda Notten Kristof de Witte participants APPAM conference London PE seminar their helpful comments 1 Introduction Classifications or social exclusion have traditionally relied measures individual income Material (MD) alternative indicator refer list ’basic necessities’ households different domains The increasing use these reflects perception captures more than lack Although depends what perceived basket necessities at given point time it essentially absolute measure contrasts commonly at-risk-of-poverty rate which relative positions within country1 become popular international intertemporal comparisons ‘Severe deprivation’ included target Europe 2020 strategy European Union (European Commission 2010) However contrast specifically related important analyzes confronted (BCS) follows total 17 000 individuals born Britain first week April BCS reports information child its parents birth contains follow-ups multiple ages both childhood until age 42 It provides possessions circumstances well vast range several progress extensively extent raw correlations driven by associations other determinants Moreover we value-added developed Imbens (2003) address selection bias establish whether likely causal remains Using factor six 1The character should be interpreted nuance Poverty can also least context one country when threshold anchored based arbitrary choice base year (in defined) principle possible construct countries Roelen (2012) constructing basis hazardous exercise 2 estimated two strands literature: studies analyzing (or complementary) background former group mainly focuses explaining mismatch being income-poor materially deprived encompassing items3 Advocates ofMDemphasize benefits over strictly conceptual view (income neglects preferences risk factors) terms measurement (yearly volatile across prone error extremes distribution) shows into matters greatly There strong children later example educational attainment income4 Evidence adoption indicates variation families not solely due genes therefore ‘family quality’ crucial importance children5 still unclear specific aspects capture Studies composite socio-economic status (SES) typically combine parental education occupation home and/or linked those 6 Brooks-Gunn Duncan (1997) provide overview focus relation conclude (preschool school years) most strongly difficult empirically disentangle occu- 2See eg Perry (2002); Whelan et al (2004) 3Different methods elicit single such prevalence weighting principal component item response theory structural equation modeling no consensus For examples each approaches see Cappellari Jenkins (2006); Maˆıtre (2005); Tomlinson (2008) An provided (2010) 4See Corak (2013) intergenerational transmission OECD (2015) 5See Bj¨orklund Sacerdote (2008); Beckett (2006) 6See Bradley Corwyn (2002) 3 pation neighbourhood rearing behavior etc Recent aimed uncover direct links Many role credit constraints type research finds short-term becomes limited best once factors achievement concludes permanent markedly liquidity (Heckman 2000; Carneiro Heckman 2003; Dearden 2004; Chevalier 2013) Still (permanent) Several exploited exogenous directly Frijters (2005) using sibling fixed effects combination event German reunification identifies low health while Løken Norwegian oil boom shock Other identify comparatively larger estimates substantially below simple suggest; Blanden Gregg (partially same (British) paper) Akee These results call question provision will lead substantial improvements prospects (2009) through evaluation EMA program students weekly cash transfers attendance staying clear alleviation because reduce opportunity costs Overall findings tend suggest correlation large part led researchers argue largely immaterial (see (2008)) explanation advocates often 4 only imperfectly restrictions opportunities face As meaningful analyze either substitute complement Establishing existing emphasis put policy policies targeted reducing Identifying relations towards improve evaluations In general few key Filmer Pritchett (1999) exception conducting macro-level they link differences wealth (measured presence basic facilities drinking water electricity) Relying rich micro-level current various measured Additionally add addressing potentially confounding likelihood providing comparison sample paper organized introduce theoretical considerations Section describes methodological issues discussed 5 presents empirical discusses robustness analyses 7 Theory 21 Defining section discuss concept arise measuring constructs definition states “material refers inability afford consumption goods activities typical certain society irrespective people’s items” (OECD 2007) words concerns able ‘typical’ major broad characterization considerable exact construction Virtually all incorporate items housing conditions More elaborate include access healthy lifestyle Since aim broadest sense since unexplored ultimately want affects developmental process child’s learning development (outside formal processes extra-curricular programs) additional domain define deprivation: possessional already suggested ‘material’ aspect always adhered make distinction ‘immaterial’ discussion reflected subdivision possession nature7 ambiguous contain tangible tools intangible support thereby divide sub-domain separately might alternatively thought cultural ‘capital’ thereof) 7One crime believe conceptually tied household’s living arrangements (which evidently captured domain) categorize under types goes beyond (often depending subjective interpretations) them things everyone ‘should have’ Ermisch makes similar his parenting inequality labels ‘what buy’ versus do’ consider light bigger matter simultaneously recognize aware comparing interpreting 22 Measuring Another variable Data availability inevitably determines some any application criteria employed First clearly services case 1970s 1980s concern ‘enrichment’ available share population connotation leaves room interpretation specify constraint half could seen rather loose limit higher result affordability reason comprise questions distinguish having personal preference looks who bound own predominantly ranks value necessity never completely ‘irrespective preferences’ technically requires8 made odd situated high-crime reasons do our main conduct stage where order final potential assessing considered natural consequence difference ‘concise’ rely very dataset Hence although lower bounds fact inexhaustible relevant viewed upper explain adulthood (we label ‘cohort members’) baseline 196 10 16 26 30 34 38 429 suffer amount observations drops out fairly (86% 73% 26) waves 0 8The dependent adaptive feelings shame recognized Fusco (2011) addressed adapt Item Response approach correct differential reporting propensities 9The wave around 8 administered tests following (ie cohort members) school-level teachers principals taken verbal wide focal somewhat weighted specification supplementary Each Parental categorical (seven categories eleven 16) follow McKnight assigning midpoint band including obtained qualifications mental body mass index satisfaction gross net structure four variables: reading highest qualification self-reported If missing impute next recent observation apply increases rapidly observe avoid leads measure11 non-missing years established trends then calculate average express rank 100 10To confusion member’s serves serve ‘adult income’ ‘parental 11The mean values stable 9 test scores intelligence math Questionnaires carried sets allow self-esteem locus person feels life) Rutter behavioral problems reported members latter Locus Estimation 41 Measurement mentioned separate health/nutritional subdivided 50% inputs take affected (intermediate) dummy aspiration levels desired level particular performs Similarly exclude number friends visited same-aged peers assume choices carry ‘ambiguous’ determine fit relevance uniqueness measures) choose method explanatory power weight assigned inverse sample) cases includes Being TV sources overlap automatically ensures much receive excluded altogether All standardized zero standard deviation 112 assessment purpose report 66 completion presented Table A113 model estimate OLS model: Yi = 0+ 1Possi+ 2Housei+ 3Neighi+ 4Healthi+ 5EduMi+ 6EduIi+ 7Soci+X0 i+i (1) vector X0 employment 12The Cronbach’s alpha are: 0801 0700 0640 0554 0545 eduational 0447 13The defined unlikely (eg appliances) chosen priors expected ex ante affect indirectly spend child-rearing 11 style complete Appendix A2 inclusion ofX0 account outside emphasize controls effect operate spending tutoring classes) among When father’s without impacts parameter  Model represents classical term represent mechanisms progress14 array cognition socio-emotional play mediating outcomes15 43 Imputation To ensure enough observed 14We channels shaped grows 15See Almlund cognitive 12 imputation W¨oßmann ‘fundamental’ (labeled F) fundamental virtually birth; gestational mother’s ethnicity wedlock gender was hospital-born M (Mk) (Mj ) regress Mj F coefficients regression Mk Further dummies indicate imputed Results correlational regresses isolation step jointly subsequently signals chances grow obtaining favourable (including domains) informative evidence holding constant reflect unobservable issue Sections 52 53 13 portrayed graphically Figure figure (Model 1) finally additionally specifications Tables A4 A6 detail 51 Main estimation 511 Reading shown left quadrant A3 Not surprisingly strongest increase reduction 029 remain statistically significant coefficient suggests 010 per With last rows marginally reduces appear mechanism 512 Educational mem- 14 ber (different of) distinguishing significantly associated decrease 07 corresponds 025 deviation) Including severely longer full (mainly income) -022 drive previous exist high Achievement appears (both noncognitive cutoff degree attributed comparable Among GCSE A-C connections Dummy end 15 distribution weaker 513 Adult during right A5 smaller here margin (‘separate’) ranking percentiles added decreases 09 percentile compared initial Controlling Part operates mimics 42) incomes highly consistent 514 Health Interestingly dominate Social 0136 five-point scale (and initially association hardly (observed) change (once occur questionnaires predate physical prominent16 selective controlling class) Similar mediate 515 Non-linearity assumed now linear worthwhile explore extreme need reach before nonlinearities subsection estimating polynomials domains17 non-linearity apparent Comparing inhibits non-linear tendencies quadratic positive indicating negative diminishing possibly skewed implies fits hous- 16See Kessler (2007) 17These request ing interesting (especially) severe non-linearities certainly involve sign reversal surprising begin attenuated Finally interaction complementarity neighbourhoods vice versa 516 assessed noteworthy summarized A7 Coefficients (the size 01 well-being) (immaterial) Estimates Furthermore acts rooms house highlights persistence proper Body Mass Index (BMI) BMI allows positively negatively 18 appliances microwaves) less diet lag adolescence Value-added Because points lagged earlier achieved X0) growth lags contrasting remarkable electronics bedroom 19 opposite scores18 line revealed score exhibit adulthood19 unobserved investments identified biased influence (GSA) extended Harada continuous unobservables required 18We speculate underlying One watching complementing subjects (Borzekowski Robinson 2005; Sharif ways 19See Cunha (2010); 20 insignificant20 plausibility parameters partial R2’s needed render insignificant combined plausibly On hand if away plots plausible cases: requires straightforward so (unobservable) weak GSA produces emphasized variance explained plotted graph conservative addition 20One implausible even though (very slightly) X21 adding classroom peer R2 001 0017 representative X curve area 54 Explanatory valuable joint marginal reveals uniquely explains (extensive) student 21Additionally statistical significance (at 10% level) majority conclusion condition lines above minor means (especially self-esteem) compare ‘gross’ ‘net’ A1 look reversed) naturally shares figures confirms adverse 55 better essence argued bands subject Keeping mind portray restrict overallMDare Correlations slightly perform (an imperfect eliciting at-risk 23 modest third fourth column split pattern indicator; subset predictive second except again dominance (strictly) (likely attenuated) ‘traditional’ error22 weakest characteristics) worth noting lose multidimensional advantages unique seven con- 22One focused bottom distinguishes (its close normal long tails side) topcoded 24 siderably 56 Differences constructed too robustly age-effects Robustness assumptions relax 61 Bad problem styles divorces 25 downwardly 10; 5; ‘bad controls’ Deprivation incorporating Nonetheless panel B contribute overall downward influenced Conversely excludes controlled 62 Affordability count executed belong (these unconditional Only looking simply owning connection (possessional) 63 Different specified restriction cannot 25% 15% tighter remove 20% 40% respectively fall changes 25-50% 15-50% restrictive almost Sensitivity thresholds gradually three models 27 64 Endogenous items? present misleading way visits museum library plays musical instrument partially interest (partially) parent-child member club Especially expect however lies A9 proportional achievement23 ex- 23The restricted subdomains: neighbours financial responsible 28 ercise interpret care truly resulting (also) personality independently state representing (perceived) environment surrounding 65 Attrition heterogeneity disappear attrition non-random Those differ Most prominently male (584% vs 494%) non-native (168% 86%) (122% 56%) fully period external validity may turns boys out-of-wedlock None similarly moderate loss representativeness 29 described employing conventional identifying attenuation interactions corresponding (thereby allowing intercept slope respective variable) A8 approaches: applied sum binary remarkably (commonly used) relating sizes Judging 67 Financial hardship incorporated lacking namely ability unexpected expenses arrears bills ask were troubled past Conditional percentage 0100 Conclusion experienced reveal Plausible adds (mental) analyzed ‘deprivation’ form (a capital (conditional) 31 diminish Previous huge Our isolated contributor disconnect ‘material state’ causally supportive McLanahan Bianchi educated fathers mothers contributors Research low-income improved changing guidance beliefs relief (Kautz 2014) ‘immaterial (imperfectly measured) At invalidate alto- 32 gether Basic (although groups improves identifier limitations automatic taking life-time perspective changed inevitable linking achievements causality likely) exploitation elements help segments Future precisely greatest challenge exactly why obtain widely References R K W E Copeland G Keeler Angold J Costello Parents children’s outcomes: quasi-experiment American economic journal Applied economics 2(1) 86–115 L Duckworth T D Kautz Personality psychology Handbook Education Volume pp 1–181 Amsterdam: Elsevier 33 C Maughan Castle Colvert Groothues Kreppner S Stevens O’Connor Sonuga-Barke Do persist adolescence? 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US CESifo Working 1162 37 1: Possess House Neighbour Educ (M) (I) −3 −2 −1 −6 −4 att −05 05 Raw C+M Notes: portrays (‘Raw’) (‘C’) (‘C+M’) ‘C+M’ horizontal bars 95% confidence intervals equally spaced averaged expressed 2: Partial EV −−> HE HO (partial R2) (‘EV’; deprivation) (D) (X0) Figures (C (I)) (all row) (P) (HE) (HO) 39 3: Math Self−esteem Mental Controls Domains (vector regressing 40 Possession Housing Neigh Panel A: VA Reading16 0035* 0003 0001 -0030*** -0050*** -0107*** -0001 (0021) (0018) (0010) (0011) (0012) LC 0051*** 0016 -0006 -0018* -0029** -0054*** 0002 (0019) (0016) (0009) Reading10 -0051*** -0020** -0026** -0138*** -0008 (0014) -0031** -0019* -0021** -0110*** -0005 (0013) Math16 -0066*** -0002 -0014 -0059*** -0049*** -0093*** -0024 (0025) (0020) (0015) -0040* 0019 -0010 -0038*** -0027** -0030* -0022* (0017) Rutter16 -0007 -0056*** -0028*** -0032*** -0046*** -0065*** -0047*** -0025*** -0035*** -0024** -0028** -0044*** Rutter10 -0036** -0019** 0007 -0070*** -0020 0009 -0009 -0048*** (0008) Locus16 -0042** -0016 -0019 -0027 -0041*** (0023) 0014 -0038** -0015 -0023 -0037*** Self-esteem16 -0030 0026 -0033*** -0047** -0161*** 0029 -0046** -0157*** B: Reading5 -0077*** -0034*** 0004 -0004 -0111*** -0011 Math10 -0057*** -0022** -0018** -0042*** -0121*** Rutter5 0041*** 0053*** 0026*** 0006 0015 0027*** Locus10 -0023** -0003 -0045*** Self-esteem10 -0027*** -0025** table ‘LC’ (taken outcomes) regressions ‘Rutter’ ‘Locus’ internal No Y (all) 0801*** -0818*** -0434*** -0594*** 0179*** -0295*** -0127*** -0249*** (0035) (0039) (0046) (0043) (0042) (0038) 729*** -726*** -520*** -330*** 366*** -251*** -0999** -234*** (0396) (0399) (0436) (0440) (0484) (0450) (0439) (0382) 0154*** -0179*** -0113*** 0054*** -0087*** -0055*** 0242*** -0218*** -0172*** 0042* -0026 0010 (0024) (0022) 0301*** -0335*** -0176*** -0244*** 0038** -0131*** -0124*** 0279*** -0307*** -0213*** 0079*** -0149*** -0100*** -0082*** (0029) (0027) (0026) 0130*** -0197*** -0123*** -0119*** 0026* -0072*** -0079*** 0129*** -0258*** -0114*** -0231*** 0041 -0219*** -0184*** 0898*** -125*** -0468*** -127*** 0291 -0790*** -0240 -0937*** (0138) (0157) (0162) (0161) (0193) (0194) (0184) (0169) (Y) Effects estimations Possession16 Possession10 Possession5 Housing16 Housing10 Housing5 -0036 -0035 -0032 -0033 0028 (0036) (0031) -0192 0342 -0951*** -0872*** -0783*** 0158 (0311) (0395) (0329) (0245) (0246) (0253) 0012 0039* -0034* 0025* Age-specific 4: Exclusion -0209*** -0418*** -513*** (0312) lim -209*** (0288) -0028 -0137*** -182*** (0028) (0317) -0288*** -0730*** -557*** -0136*** (0301) -0064*** (0297) -0208*** -243*** (0306) -0264*** -0513*** -403*** -0112*** (0310) -0242*** -0463*** -376*** -0098*** (0019 (0279) -0043* -0062** -123*** (0305) -0203*** -265*** (0030) (0341) -0205*** -250*** (taking together) 5: Lack (A) (B) -0426*** 0027 -0423*** -00024 0025 -349*** -131*** 0022 -348*** -0729*** 0018 (0286) (0307) (0275) 00093 -0089*** -0026*** (00098) (00097) Add -0210*** 0054** 0104 -0196*** 0075*** 0101 -177*** -0574** 0072 -163*** -0118 0069 (0303) (0283) (0273) 0030 -0017* 00065 -0040** 000011 (00095) -0059** 0235 0034 -0434 -0740*** 0225 -0405 -0188 0224 (0295) (0265) (0298) (0251) -00027 -0013 0054 -00058 0053 00055 0248 00098 000018 (00091) compares afforded 44 6: maximally allowed (main) -0083*** -0025 -0031 -0088*** -0061** 0231 -0790** -0922*** -0537** -0630*** -0310 -1718*** -1010*** 0324 (0333) (0272) (0228) (0232) (0249) (0271) -0053*** 0047 0013 -0103*** 0237 -0067** -0085*** -0060*** -0226*** -0039* 0229 -0416 -0826*** 0507** -0433* -0303 -1674*** -0615** 0321 (0313) (0229) (0233) (0239) (0262) (0250) -0012 0028*** -0036*** 0008 0011 0236 -0038 -0181*** 0226 -0771** -0648** 0120 -0399* -0762*** -1178*** -0257 0319 (0319) (0269) (0237) (0231) (0260) (0256) -0016* -0031*** 0045 0005 -0099*** 0232 top 45 A1: variance: (reversed) 46 Items • Possessions: (does own:) refrigerator washing machine dryer car phone video recorder camera stereo radio PC sewing vacuum cleaner microwave 16); freezer holiday 10); 5); child: cassette player bicycle Health: eats meat fish times breakfast lunch iron vitamins milk fibre carbons sugar intake 10) Neighbourhood: noisy graffiti youth loitering streets drunks rubbish street victim beak-in unsafe night (age 5) Housing: bathroom indoor toilet hot garden kitchen bed difficulties heating moisture untidy furniture (material): played books studying newspapers calculator constructional toys (immaterial): read Social: participate activity (excursions charities concerts) talk rarely participates misses money organization 47 A2: Control Birth controls: abnormalities hospital head circumference mother married father Household income: eligibility free class: employment: works (averaged hours worked work experience structure: people older siblings younger Parenting style: attitude toward independence authoritarian world smoking (ever) pregnancy heavy A3: Separate -0128*** -0169*** -0289*** – -0044** -0096*** -0193*** 0115 0000003 -0039*** -0017 0181 0000 -0020* -0167*** -0021* 0132 -0081*** -0170*** 0144 Parent empl -0041** -0029*** -0091*** -0198*** 0119 -0031* -0188*** 0141 -0090*** -0165*** 0133 Non-cog (NC) 0021* 0249 (WC) row regressed isolation) Rows Row See contained 49 A4: -0560*** -0449*** -0260*** -0451*** -0707*** -0433*** -0271*** -0140*** -0162*** -0486*** 0106 -0261*** -0130*** -0171*** -0456*** 0118 0198 -0074** -0056** -0057** -0135*** -0390*** -0101*** 0147 -0153*** -0055** -0126*** -0399*** -0129*** 0159 -0239*** -0147*** -0462*** -0104*** -0092*** -0148*** -0160*** -0425*** 0142 -0187*** -0071*** -0132*** -0394*** 0137 -0058*** -0192*** -0080*** 0243 -0047 -0073*** -0045* 0301 -0078*** -0141*** -0429*** 0128 -0018 -0194*** 0242 -0037* 0303 50 A5: -517*** -412*** -281*** -304*** -417*** -482*** -289*** (0299) (0282) (0254) (0266) (0278) (0268) -2630*** -1700*** -1540*** -2392*** -2158*** -2576*** -0454 0071 (0353) (0255) (0264) (0308) -2260*** -1583*** -0971*** -0956*** -0851*** -3238*** -1399*** 0276 (0321) (0284) (0281) -1651*** -1394*** -1140*** -2097*** -1611*** -1383*** -0153 (0354) (0309) (0261) -0901** -1055*** -1239*** -2231*** -1889*** -1798*** -0088 0099 (0371) (0314) (0276) -2148*** -1552*** -1300*** -2208*** -1929*** -2071*** -0462 0090 (0358) (0277) (0285) -2381*** -1592*** -1537*** -2394*** -2178*** -2552*** -0419 (0364) (0315) (0287) -2562*** -1570*** -1527*** -2374*** -2070*** -2527*** -0368 (0360) -2052*** -1469*** -1376*** -2255*** -2016*** -1964*** -0326 0084 (0357) -1684*** -1085*** -1314*** -1838*** -1425*** -0544* -0116 0129 (0348) (0304) -0639* -0726*** -0516** -0270 0077 -0600** -0976*** 0363 (0326) (0221) (0242) (0243) -2572*** -1612*** -1371*** -2182*** -2046*** -2402*** 0052 0083 (0352) (0292) -0792** -0857*** -0401* -0476** -0222 -1526*** -0549** 0332 (0332) (0270) -0650** -0710*** -0204 0113 -0563** -0699*** 0366 description A6: -0108*** -0125*** (00099) (00092) (00093) -0040*** 0031 0038 -0030** 0036 -0068*** 0037 -0069*** 0035 0044 0048 0059 0061 Subjective A7: Arrests34 0030*** (0007) (0006) health42 -0300** -0117 -0066 -0262*** -0105 -0709*** (0147) (0121) (0095) (0098) (0101) (0122) (0103) satis34 -0043** -0150*** (0120) Finances42 0024* 0033*** 0024** BMI42 -0276*** 0190*** 0345*** -0057 0057 (0091) (0073) (0059) (0063) (0064) (0078) (0065) -0278** -0034 0221*** 0239*** 0088 -0042 0240 (0115) (0099) (0060) (0076) (0071) BMI16 -0053 0197*** 0040 -0046 (0048) (0032) (0053) 0060* 0060 0067* 0275 (0047) BMI10 0020 0151*** 0046 BMI42) ‘BMI’ ‘Arrests34’ arrests 34‘Mental health42’ Warwick Edinburgh well-being ‘Finances42’ situation A8: Comparison (educational attainment) Factor PW -0332*** -0191*** -0357*** -0122*** 0093 Sum -0292*** -0158*** -0037 -0517*** -0118*** 0086 Binary -0633*** 0129** -0527*** -0982*** -0199*** (0057) (0056) (0058) -0095*** -0049** -0224*** -0099 -0138** -0476*** -0130** -0065 0228 (0061) (0055) (0054) (baseline) ‘Factor’ ‘PW’ ‘Sum’ sums applies ‘Binary’ 0/1 75th labeled deprived) A9: Excluding Exclude -0062*** -0166*** 0227 -1000*** -1028*** -0573** -0714*** -0286 -1166*** 0320 (0334) (0230) (0248) (0234) -0021 0023 partly member) exclusively Copyright © @ author(s) Discussion papers draft distributed purposes comment reproduced permission copyright holder Copies author

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